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U.S. National Debt Clock — Confidential Report
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The U.S. National Debt Clock
Real-time fiscal data from the U.S. Treasury — updated every 30 seconds.
7.1% toward $40 trillion
Debt Per Citizen
≈ 63 months of avg rent
Debt Per Taxpayer
Interest
Interest Outlook
Estimated federal interest burden over the next 12 months based on current rates
The government borrows money by selling bonds, and pays interest on those bonds just like you pay interest on a credit card. This section shows how much of your tax dollars go to paying that interest — money that can’t be spent on roads, schools, or defense.
Interest Rate Tipping Point
At what average interest rate does interest consume all tax revenue?
At an average rate of 6.7%, half of all federal tax revenue would go to interest alone. At 13.4%, the government would need every dollar of tax revenue just to pay interest — with nothing left for defense, Social Security, or Medicare.
Based on current debt of $39.07T and annual federal revenue of $5.23T. Sources: US Treasury, FRED
What If? Interest Rate Simulator
Drag the slider to see how different interest rates affect the federal budget
Interest costs are a small part of the budget
Drag the gauge needle or use the slider
Based on current debt of $39.07T and annual federal revenue of $5.92T. This is a simplified model — actual fiscal dynamics involve maturity schedules, inflation, and economic feedback loops.
US National Debt — 20 Year History
Source: FRED GFDEBTN (Total Public Debt, Quarterly)
Current
$38.51T
Period Start
Jul 1, 2006: $8.51T
Period End
Oct 1, 2025: $38.51T
Change
+$30.01T
% Change
+352.7%
Forecast
Debt Trajectory — 10-Year Projection
Statistical extrapolation based on 5-year compound growth rate with 68% and 95% confidence intervals
If the government keeps borrowing at the same pace, this chart shows where the debt is headed. The shaded bands show the range of likely outcomes — think of it like a weather forecast for the national credit card balance.
Current Trajectory uses 6.8% 5-year CAGR from FRED GFDEBTN quarterly data. Balanced Budget tapers growth to 2% (inflation only) over 5 years. Austerity reduces debt by ~1% annually after a 3-year taper. Stimulus models 1.5× current growth rate. Confidence bands reflect ±1σ/±2σ of historical volatility (3.5%).
Context
Debt in Context
Key economic indicators that drive and reflect the national debt trajectory
Consumer Price Index
332.4
Measures average change in prices paid by urban consumers. Rising CPI erodes purchasing power.
+3.95% YoY
FRED CPIAUCSL
M2 Money Supply
$22.69T
Total money in circulation including savings and money market funds. Rapid growth can signal inflation.
+4.57% YoY
FRED M2SL
Federal Surplus / Deficit
$-1.77T
Annual difference between government revenue and spending. Persistent deficits grow the debt.
Deficit
FRED FYFSD
Ownership
Who Holds the Debt?
The $38+ trillion federal debt is held by four major groups — hover to explore each
When the government borrows money, someone has to lend it. This shows who those lenders are: foreign countries like Japan and China, the Federal Reserve, Social Security, and everyday investors. It matters because if lenders lose confidence, borrowing gets more expensive for everyone.
Source: Federal Reserve (FRED) · As of 2025-10-01
Insider Signal
Congress Is Trading
How elected officials are positioning around Treasury bonds and defense stocks
Members of Congress are required to disclose their stock trades. This section shows what they’re buying and selling — especially in sectors affected by government spending decisions they vote on. It’s like seeing what the chef is eating at their own restaurant.
Buying defense — may signal confidence in continued military spending
Buying defense — may signal confidence in continued military spending
Buying defense — may signal confidence in continued military spending
Selling defense — could indicate expected budget cuts or reallocation
Betting on rate cuts — buying Treasury bonds ahead of potential Fed easing
Buying defense — may signal confidence in continued military spending
Buying defense — may signal confidence in continued military spending
Buying defense — may signal confidence in continued military spending
Selling defense — could indicate expected budget cuts or reallocation
Buying defense — may signal confidence in continued military spending
Source: Finnhub Congressional Trading Disclosures · Trades are self-reported and may be delayed 30-45 days
Sentiment
Wall Street on the Debt
How financial markets and media are framing the fiscal outlook right now
Should Buy Japan ETFs as Economy Beats Estimates in Q1?
Japan's economy exceeded expectations in Q1 2026 with a 2.1% annualized growth, driven by strong consumption and robust exports, particularly in semiconductor equipment. Despite this positive economic performance, the Bank of Japan lowered its growth forecast for fiscal 2026 due to concerns about ri
The case for international small-cap stocks
International small-cap stocks present an attractive investment opportunity due to favorable tailwinds, including lower interest rates and less debt burden compared to their U.S. counterparts. The improving economic outlook in Europe and China, coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar, further enhances the
Invesco Municipal Bond ETF Delivers Consistent Tax Free Monthly Yields
The Invesco National AMT-Free Municipal Bond ETF provides high-earning investors with consistent tax-exempt monthly income, shielded from both federal income tax and the Alternative Minimum Tax. Tracking the ICE BofAML National Long-Term Core Plus Municipal Securities Index, the ETF invests in AMT-f
Lloyds Banking Group [LSE: LLOY] Share Price Slides 2.65% as Gilt Yields, Political Uncertainty Unsettle UK Banks
Shares in Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) dropped by 2.65% to GBX 94.04 amid broader pressures on UK banking stocks. This decline is attributed to rising government bond yields, political uncertainty surrounding the Labour government's leadership, and persistent inflation concerns. Other major UK b
Labor Market on the Mend, Lower Rates on the Fence? - Raymond James - Commentaries
The article discusses the divergence in the U.S. labor market, noting a significant slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth in 2025 due to policy uncertainty and rising input costs. While manufacturing employment remains under pressure despite increased activity from industrial policy like the CHIPS Act
TLT ETF stock forecast as Peter Schiff warns on the US 30-Year Bond yields
The iShares 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has fallen sharply as US long-term government bond yields soar due to increasing national debt and concerns about its sustainability. Economist Peter Schiff predicts the 30-year bond yield could reach over 7%, while technical analysis suggests further decl
TLT ETF stock forecast as Peter Schiff warns on the US 30-Year Bond yields
The TLT ETF has continued to fall as US 30-Year Treasury yields soar past 5%. Economist Peter Schiff predicts these yields could jump to over 7% soon, driven by rising US debt and concerns about traditional buyers reducing holdings. Technical analysis suggests that both the 30-year yield will contin
NMI's Slim Premium Provides Strategic Advantage Amid Fed Rate Reductions and Rising Fiscal Strains
The Nuveen Municipal Income Fund (NMI) announced a monthly dividend of $0.038 per share for April, offering an attractive 4.6% yield. The fund's performance in 2026 is subject to conflicting forces: potential Federal Reserve rate cuts that could boost municipal bonds, and fiscal pressures from the "
Source: Alpha Vantage News Sentiment API · Sentiment analysis is algorithmic and may not reflect editorial intent
Debt Milestones
How long it took to add each $5 trillion — and the acceleration is alarming
It took 205 years to reach the first $1 trillion in debt, but only 2.5 years to add the most recent $5 trillion. At the current pace, the debt is projected to hit $40 trillion by 2026.
Sources: US Treasury Historical Debt Outstanding, Congressional Budget Office
Historical
Debt by President
How much each administration added to the national debt — from FDR to today
DEBT ACCUMULATION
Debt by President
PARTY TOTALS
Source: U.S. Treasury Historical Debt Outstanding · BEA GDP data
Debt in Perspective
How does the national debt compare to other major US economic benchmarks?
Federal Reserve, Q3 2025
Siblis Research, Jan 2026
Zillow, Sep 2025
US Treasury, Live
BEA / FRED, 2025
World Gold Council, 2025
SIFMA, Q3 2025
US Treasury, FY2025
Debt / GDP
123%
Debt exceeds annual GDP
Debt / Housing
71%
Debt = 71% of all US homes
Debt / Stock Market
57%
Debt = 57% of all US stocks
Fiscal
Federal Spending & Revenue
This is the government's monthly bank statement. Revenue is what comes in (mostly taxes), spending is what goes out (defense, healthcare, Social Security). When spending exceeds revenue, the difference gets added to the national debt.
Total government outlays this fiscal year
How much more we spend than we earn
Income from import taxes
Avg. tax revenue per filer
Ratios
Key Fiscal Ratios
US Federal Debt to GDP Ratio
US Federal Deficit to GDP Ratio
Spending
Largest Budget Items
Federal spending breakdown by category (FY 2025/2026 estimates)
Economy
Economy & Population
These numbers show the size and health of the overall economy. GDP is the total value of everything the country produces. When the economy grows faster than the debt, the burden gets lighter — like getting a raise while your mortgage stays the same.
Total economic output of the country
All government spending combined
Current estimated residents
People who file tax returns
Macro
Global Macro Context
Key economic indicators from Trading Economics that shape the fiscal landscape
Real GDP Growth
-13.5%
Alpha Vantage / BEA
Fiscal
Government & Monetary Indicators
Debt levels, budget balance, revenue, spending, and monetary policy — the full fiscal picture from Trading Economics
Fiscal indicators temporarily unavailable
Ratings
U.S. Sovereign Credit Ratings
How the world's top rating agencies assess America's ability to repay its debt — a downgrade can raise borrowing costs for everyone
Credit ratings temporarily unavailable
Bonds
Live U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
Real-time bond yields across all maturities — when short-term rates exceed long-term rates (inversion), it often signals a recession ahead
Yield curve data temporarily unavailable
Calendar
Economic Calendar
Upcoming U.S. economic releases — CPI, jobs, GDP, Fed decisions — with actual vs. forecast comparisons
Economic calendar temporarily unavailable
Global
Debt Race — Who Owes the Most?
Animated comparison of national debt accumulation across the world's largest economies
5.7T
134% GDP
5.3T
261% GDP
1.2T
62% GDP
850B
104% GDP
550B
95% GDP
180B
84% GDP
Data: IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank WDI, national treasury departments. Values in USD trillions (approximate, subject to exchange rate fluctuations for non-US economies). US data supplemented with live FRED GFDEBTN series.
Alerts
Milestone Notifications
Stay informed when the national debt crosses the next trillion-dollar threshold
Milestone Alerts
Get notified when the national debt crosses the next $1 trillion threshold.